Release date: 2014-07-22

The sixth scientific and technological revolution will promote the fifth wave of world modernization. If its expected goals can be realized, human civilization will enter the "regeneration era", and human life will undergo qualitative changes.

Many scientific historians believe that since the 16th century, there have been five revolutions in world science and technology, including two scientific revolutions and three technological revolutions. Among them, the fifth scientific and technological revolution includes two stages of the electronic technology revolution and the information technology revolution. At present, the information technology revolution is not over yet.

Since five scientific and technological revolutions have occurred in the past five centuries, and the scientific and technological revolution has certain regularity and evolutionary trends, it can be expected that the sixth scientific and technological revolution is likely to occur in the 21st century.

Three major changes that may occur

The scientific and technological revolution is a concept of science and technology history or philosophy of science and technology. So far, there is no unified understanding. In this article, the scientific and technological revolution is the collective term for the scientific revolution and the technological revolution. Compared with the first five scientific and technological revolutions, the sixth scientific and technological revolution is likely to undergo three major changes.

First, the direction of change. In the first five scientific and technological revolutions, the two scientific revolutions mainly occurred in the field of physics. The three technological revolutions mainly occurred in the fields of technical science and information science, belonging to the material science and technology revolution or the information technology revolution. The sixth scientific and technological revolution may occur mainly in the field of life sciences or on the basis of life sciences.

From the perspective of human civilization and the frontier needs of world modernization, the technological revolution in the 21st century may mainly include three revolutions: the information revolution, the new biological revolution, and the new physics revolution; from the historical structure of the first five scientific and technological revolutions, the fifth time The scientific and technological revolution is coming to an end, and the new scientific and technological revolution will probably take place in new biology or new physics. From the current international scientific and technological environment, many scientists believe that the 21st century is the century of biology, and many countries compare their investment in life sciences. Big. The above information indicates that the sixth scientific and technological revolution is likely to occur in the field of biology and is a new biological revolution.

If the key tasks of the first five scientific and technological revolutions are to understand nature, change nature, and meet human needs, then the key task of the sixth scientific and technological revolution will be that human beings will recognize themselves, change themselves and adapt to the cosmic environment, and comprehensively improve their quality of life. Improve human sustainability and adapt to the needs of the aerospace era. In layman's terms, the first five scientific and technological revolutions deal with the relationship between people and the environment. The sixth scientific and technological revolution will mainly deal with human problems. This is a direction change in the technological revolution.

Second, the structural change. The first five scientific and technological revolutions occurred mainly in one discipline or in several subject areas. The sixth scientific and technological revolution will likely occur in the intersection of several disciplines. It will have a new composite structure.

From the perspective of human civilization and the modernization of the world, the sixth scientific and technological revolution will be based on life sciences, integrating information technology and nanotechnology, and providing the latest technology to improve the quality of life and meet the needs of human spiritual life. It may be a cross-integration of three university departments (life sciences, information technology, and nanotechnology), and it mainly occurs in the cross-combination of the three university departments, rather than just in a single life science field, or not in a few Subject areas.

Third, the transformation of nature. The sixth scientific and technological revolution will be the first scientific revolution in the full sense, because it contains both the scientific revolution and the technological revolution. The sixth scientific and technological revolution will be the cross-integration of the three revolutions (scientific revolution, technological revolution and industrial revolution). It is a multi-dimensional composite comprehensive scientific and technological revolution, and its influence will surpass the first five scientific and technological revolutions.

The first five scientific and technological revolutions promoted the first four waves of world modernization, leading to fundamental changes in the world structure. The sixth scientific and technological revolution will promote the fifth wave of world modernization, leading to a reshuffle of the world pattern. If its expected goals can be achieved, human civilization will enter the "regeneration era", and human life will undergo qualitative changes.

Four forms of future human existence

The book "Strategic Opportunities for the Sixth Science and Technology Revolution" completed by the China Modernization Research Center predicts that in the next 40 years, the combination of life sciences, information science, nanoscience, biomimetic engineering and robotics, information converters, personality information packages With the combination of gender intelligence, human regeneration and the Internet, human beings will acquire three new "forms of survival", namely, network people, bionics and regenerative people, to achieve a certain meaning of "human eternal life"; by then, human individuals will have Four "forms of survival."

The first is the innovation associated with natural persons. According to the health status, it can be divided into healthy people and non-healthy people. First of all, innovations related to healthy people, in general, technology can expand people's ability, change people's lifestyles, improve the quality of life, meet and even create new and reasonable needs. For example: the invention of information converter, the direct information conversion between the human brain and the computer, the human brain can directly "knowledge charging"; the invention of high-simulation and gender intelligence will liberate people from heavy domestic work.

Second, innovations related to non-healthy people. For example, safe, efficient, non-invasive and painless physical detection and treatment techniques; diagnosis and treatment techniques for major diseases, including cancer, cardiovascular and neurological diseases; prevention techniques for major infectious diseases; transplantation techniques for major organs and tissues of the human body, human body Regeneration techniques for tissues, organs and limbs.

Second, innovation related to online people. Internet people are virtual people or digital people who live in cyberspace in the future. He is a "network image" of natural persons and lives relatively independently in the "virtual world." If the network exists for one day, he will exist for one day; unless it is artificially "deleted." This is a form of future human individual survival. When the natural human body leaves the world, if it is not deleted, the "network image" of the natural human body will still exist and will continue to live. This is a kind of "networked eternal life."

Third, innovation related to bionics. A bionic person is a high-simulation intelligent person who has the appearance, body characteristics, gender function, and "personality information" of a natural human body. The body of the bionic person is made of high-performance biomimetic material and has some characteristics of the human body. His body function can be designed with real human body, sexual function and various other zoological functions. His brain has accepted all the social aspects of the human body. "Study information" and "independent personality" have certain emotions, love and hate.

To a large extent, the bionic person has the same body shape and character as the natural person's body, and the manners and manners are very similar to the body. By then, the bionic person is a living "person", no longer a robot of the usual meaning. He is a separate, independent, independent thinking "person" from the ontology, and is a manifestation of the continuation of the ontological life.

To a certain extent, imitation biomass can be converted indefinitely, and bionic information can be transmitted infinitely. In this sense, people can get "eternal life." This eternal life is not the eternal life of virtual space, but truly exists in the real world. When the ontology of natural persons is turned into dust, the "simulation body" of the natural person's body can continue.

Fourth, innovation related to regenerative people. A regenerative person refers to a "replicating person" who has all the biological information, sociological information, and personality characteristics of a natural person. The body of the regenerative person is derived from the somatic cell culture of the natural human body. It has all the genetic information of the natural person. His knowledge and personality are derived from the "personal information package" of the natural human body, and all or most of the sociological information and personality characteristics of the natural person. He seems to be a "replica" or "new body" of a natural person. At some point, natural persons choose to use "human regeneration" technology to cultivate a "replica", and at the right time, transfer the information of the "personal information package" of the natural person to the brain of the "replica", so the "new body" Like the "second life" that natural people get. When natural persons leave the world, the “new body” of the regenerative person will continue to survive; from generation to generation, the next generation inherits the knowledge of the previous generation and moves on.

Healthy longevity is a dream of mankind. Based on existing technology, this dream is difficult to fully realize. Life and death are an essential feature of life, and the life span of natural persons is limited. However, the sixth scientific and technological revolution will provide three forms of "immortality of the human body", including the "networked immortality" of the network, the "simulated eternal life" of the bionics, and the "replicating eternal life" of the reborn. So far, there have been many examples of relying on technology to realize human dreams. For example, humans can fly into the sky by plane, and they can board the moon by flying ships. In the future, relying on new technologies to achieve a certain meaning of "human eternal life" will be a new example.

The approximate time of the sixth scientific and technological revolution is around 2020 to 2050. This prediction is based on three considerations.

First, the fifth scientific and technological revolution (electronic and information revolution) will end in 2020, and its duration is about 70 years (1946-2020). The duration of the third technological revolution (the power and transportation revolution) was also about 70 years.

Second, the accumulation of biology in 2020 will reach about 70 years. From the birth of molecular biology (1953) to 2020, about 70 years. The electronic and information revolution was also about 70 years old, from the discovery of electronics (about 1897) to the beginning of the electronic revolution (invented electronic computers in 1946) for about 50 years, to the beginning of the information revolution (about 1970) for about 70 years. Biology is likely to make major breakthroughs around 2020.

Moreover, according to the economic long wave theory, 2020 may be an inflection point of the long-term economic cycle.

There are four forms of future human survival, three of which are based on breakthroughs in five key technologies:

Information converter technology, technology for direct information exchange and conversion between human brain and computer; personality information packet technology, information bionic technology for creating information packages containing sociological and personality information of the human brain; biomimetic technology, imitation biological organization And behavioral engineering techniques; creation techniques are engineering techniques for artificially synthesizing biological tissues, organs, limbs and living bodies; regeneration techniques are engineering techniques for the regeneration of biological tissues, organs and living bodies by induction or culture. .

In general, information converters, personality information packages, bionics, creation and regeneration technologies will continue to evolve, just like the replacement of computers and software technologies; bionics, creation and regeneration technologies will be intertwined, and the five technologies have May be partially cross-fused. Regeneration projects include the bionics, creation and regeneration of cells, tissues, organs, bodies, humans and species, and artificial production of artificial tissues and organs such as artificial heart, lung, stomach, skin, bones, blood, blood vessels and limbs.

New opportunities for China's modernization

Science has no borders and technology has patents. In general, the scientific revolution is universal, and the technological revolution is uneven. Countries that seize the opportunities of the scientific revolution can gain some social benefits, such as promoting ideological emancipation and technological progress. Countries that seize the opportunities of technological revolution can obtain core patents and huge economic benefits. The sixth scientific and technological revolution is the fusion of the scientific revolution and the technological revolution. It contains enormous economic and social interests and will affect the rise and fall of the country to a certain extent.

We speculate that the impact of the sixth scientific and technological revolution will be deeper and broader than the first five technological revolutions. There are three main reasons: First, the sixth scientific and technological revolution is the fusion of the scientific revolution, the technological revolution and the industrial revolution. Second, the sixth scientific and technological revolution is a new biological and reproductive revolution involving human development and evolution. Its influence on the nation transcends the previous material and information technology revolution; third, the technological means provided by the information revolution may magnify the opportunity cost of the sixth technological revolution. For example, countries that master the core patent technologies of information converters and personality information packages undoubtedly have unshakable strategic advantages in the international information market, talent market and international military conflicts.

In the past 500 years, China has missed the first four technological revolutions. China’s loss of four scientific and technological revolutions has led to a decline in China’s international status. Take social productivity (per capita GDP in terms of purchasing power parity) as an example. In 1700, China’s social productivity ranks 18th in the world, 48th in 1820, 71th in 1900, and 99th in 1950. . In the fifth scientific and technological revolution, China adopted a tracking and imitation strategy, and its international status and comprehensive strength rose, but it was not ideal. In the same period of Japan, the adoption of technological innovation strategy has realized the dream of upgrading developed countries from developing countries. China’s price in the fifth scientific and technological revolution is much lower than the previous four, but it is still very large.

Whether China is getting net income from the historical opportunity of the sixth scientific and technological revolution, or whether it continues to pay the high cost of opportunity costs depends on our choice. If we can advance the layout and seize the strategic commanding heights of the sixth scientific and technological revolution, it is possible to win the initiative, and it is possible to master its core patents, which may accelerate the great rejuvenation of the Chinese nation. There is no doubt that the sixth scientific and technological revolution will be a new opportunity for China's modernization.

Source: Hope News Weekly

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