After entering September, the harvesting of rice in China will begin in a wide range. In the face of the general fall in prices of autumn and autumn agricultural products in 2015, the rice varieties have become a thriving one, showing a steady upward trend, resulting in a significant increase in the area of ​​rice cultivation in 2016. Facing the 2016 harvest season, this year's bull market will be able to resume the last year when the drought in the south and the recent typhoon strike in the northeast have caused a large area of ​​paddy rice in some areas, causing quality declines and production cuts. Will become the focus of farmers, traders, rice enterprises concerned. Yin Xiuying, an analyst at China Grain and Oil Information Network, believes that the road to rice harvesting and storage will show greater benefits than empty, and the author will discuss with the national policy and market supply and demand situation.

Policy support at the end of rice prices will continue stable and strong

First, policy: On February 3, 2016, to protect the interests of farmers and prevent “grass injury to farmers”, in 2016 the country continued to implement the minimum purchase price policy in the main rice production areas. Taking into account various factors such as food production costs, market supply and demand, domestic and foreign market prices, and industrial development, the minimum purchase prices for early-season rice (III, similarly), middle-late rice, and japonica rice produced in 2016 were respectively approved by the State Council. 50 kilograms are 133 yuan, 138 yuan and 155 yuan. With the exception of early glutinous rice, the price of 0.02 yuan/kg to 1.33 yuan/kg was lowered, and the other two varieties were all in line with the previous year. Therefore, the country will still ensure the planting efficiency of farmers as much as possible. And through the implementation of the policy of starting early rice and wheat support since July 28, the state has actively adjusted stocks to ensure early season rice and wheat storage in the new season through various means, and this year's wheat quality deviation situation In the latter part of the country, the local government has also introduced a policy of deregulation of warehouse receipts, so farmers can be more relaxed about rice. According to the latest statistics, as of August 25, various grain companies in the main producing areas accumulatively purchased 63.8 million tons of wheat, an increase of 5.58 million tons; cumulative acquisition of 5.88 million tons of early rice, an increase of 1.08 million tons; cumulative acquisition of rapeseed 106 Ten thousand tons, a year-on-year decrease of 300,000 tons.

Vigorously promote destocking

At the end of 2015, the “de-stocking” at the Central Economic Work Conference was included in one of the five major economic tasks identified by China next year. In the agricultural sector, corn and rice varieties have become the main targets for destocking, mainly due to continuous storage and storage for many years. It was caught in the turbulent circle of “national grain importing and foreign grain entering the market”, which not only increased the burden on the state's finances, but also caused hidden dangers for farmers' planting income in the later period. Since 2016, the state has successively initiated the sale of the two varieties of rice and corn stored in the State Reserve Auctions for overdue storage and storage, attracting industrial and feed companies to participate in purchases at extremely low prices, and continuing to carry out national reserve japonica rice and japonica auctions. . According to statistics from the China Grain and Oils Information Network, as of the end of August, the State Reserve had sold 1,222,562 tons of japonica rice and 1,678,947 tons of japonica rice. The overdue storage and storage capacity of japonica rice sold at 2,514,228 tons, of course, has not yet been calculated on the basis of local reserves. Library volume, so effective Tengcang brings benefits for new grain storage.

Northeast corn temporary storage cancels good for rice

From 2016 onwards, the implementation of the eight-year corn reserve policy will be withdrawn from the stage of history, and the income of farmers will be guaranteed through the separation of prices. Then corn is no longer implemented temporary storage. Rice is more beneficial to rice farmers in Northeast China. The vacated corn storage capacity can be used for storage and storage of rice, so the support of the rice market will further increase. According to statistics from the China Grain and Oil Information Network, by the end of August, the total volume of Heilongjiang corn was 987,954 tons, Jilin corn volume was 2,175,869 tons, and Liaoning corn volume was 1,860,805 tons as of the end of August. If corn storage is used to store rice, this will help Effectively solve the problem of shortage of warehouse capacity, and the progress of japonica rice storage will also be accelerated. It is expected that the 2016 Northeast Rice Storage and Storage will start after the National Day.

To sum up, it is expected that after the rice harvest in 2016, the rice support market will show a pattern of strong north and weak south, and the acquisition volume of the japonica rice is expected to exceed the 2014 million tons in the same period of last year. The author proposes that the Northeast farmers can sell the newly-listed grain rice after the start of the market. If some of the high-quality varieties are suitable for storage, they can raise the price of grain as soon as possible. In the case of the rice enterprises, under the implementation of the State Reserve Policy, they can adopt the use of mining, use a small amount of stockpiles to maintain production until the Spring Festival. After all, long-term subject to the "rice-weak rice weak" situation, the rice enterprises will occupy a large amount of grain. The enterprises have transferred large amounts of funds, and in addition, the market for rice is not just a competition between domestically produced rice, but imported rice has also become an integral part of the market.

(Yin Xiuying)

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