Since the US soybeans entered the shock market in November last year, it has lasted for four months. During the period, the fluctuations in the price of the futures disk were accompanied by speculations on the export of US soybeans and the speculation of weather factors in South America. However, under the guidance of no substantial positive and negative factors, the US soybean price has not been able to form a trend rebound or continue downward trend in the previous period.

However, as Brazil's harvest progresses, whether the total South American production exceeds expectations will affect the overall soybean price trend in the second quarter.

1. US soybean sales approaching the end of 12/13, US soybean stock speculation has no meaning. The US Department of Agriculture's monthly report in March estimated that the 2012/13 US soybean ending inventory was the same as February's estimate, which was 125 million bushels. At the beginning of the report, analysts generally expected the inventory to be about 122 million pounds. Due to the slow export from Brazil, China’s demand for US beans was strong. However, it is clear that China is still waiting for Brazilian soybeans and US soybeans are still maintaining normal export speeds. As of the end of February, inspections of US soybean exports in this year had completed 1.147 billion pu, accounting for 85.28% of the export volume, and the export speed was significantly faster than 66.74% in the same period of last year. China's port soybean stocks are still maintained at more than 5 million tons, enough to wait for the arrival of Brazilian soybeans. At present, the speculation on US soybean stocks has no meaning. From the perspective of disappointment, soybean prices have no room for growth.

Second, South America weather hype, the final production time to be verified The US Department of Agriculture monthly report in March to maintain Brazil's 2012/13 soybean production, while at the same time lowered Argentina's soybean production again, the two countries' total output decreased by 1.5 million tons compared to February The total exports remained unchanged at 49.30 million tons.

The growth of Brazilian soybeans remained normal. Although there were institutions in Brazil to reduce production this year, the USDA did not make adjustments because the weather conditions in Brazil are generally normal, and most of the soybeans have entered a mature period, and the weather is no longer significant. Uncertain factors in Brazil's production are mainly the real increase in the planting area, which may not be conclusive until the harvest is fully completed. Brazil's inland transportation and port loading capacity only affect short-term shipping capacity and become the subject of short-term speculation in the market, but it has no impact on final production.

Argentina is still affected by localized droughts and output has fallen by 3.5 million tons, or 6.36%, from the December forecast. The weather factors in the later period will still be the subject of speculation in Argentina's production, but from the actual weather conditions, the data may be too conservative and the final output may rise.

Third, domestic soybean stocks and consumption According to data released by China Customs, in February China imported 2.9 million tons of soybeans, a total of 768 million tons in January and February, compared with 8.44 million tons in the same period last year, 760,000 tons less imported. As of the end of February, port soybean stocks stood at 5.13 million tons, which was at a normal level. The operating rate of oil plants was maintained at around 46%. Soybean oil stocks remained at nearly 1 million tons. Demand for soybean meal was normal, and port soybean stocks were sufficient to maintain a large amount of soybeans in Brazil. To Hong Kong. At present, the stock of livestock and poultry has not been restored, and the pig-to-food ratio has dropped to 5.55. The scale of pig-raising has started to lose money, and the demand for soybean meal will hardly rise quickly in the future.

IV. Technical Analysis Currently, the CBOT5 monthly bean price is at the upper edge of the previous period, and the K-line has formed a triangular pattern in the past month and month. It will break the upper edge of the range depending on the price, but from a longer time, the current price is still at In the early fall pattern, the ascending triangle does not hold, and from the perspective of the weekly line, the complex right shoulder is more like the shape of the head and shoulders. Therefore, we still maintain the bearish view, and CBOT soybean prices will still have a larger decline in the long term.

In the domestic market, the weak oil continued to be weak. Crushing companies were able to maintain the profitability of crushing, and the price of soybean oil was relatively weak. The price of soybean oil was relatively weak, and it had fallen below the 8400 first-line support. It is expected that its next support will be at the 8000 line, and the position support will be stronger. At the same time, the situation of being weak and weak will change.