The National Development and Reform Commission announced last week that it will raise the minimum purchase prices of the third-grade white wheat, red wheat and mixed wheat produced in 2011 to 95 yuan, 93 yuan and 93 yuan per 50 kilograms respectively, which is an increase of 5 yuan and 7 yuan respectively compared with 2010. And 7 yuan. Analysts believe that under the background of the declining global wheat output, this is the biggest increase in the minimum purchase price of wheat in the past 6 years, second only to the 2009 price adjustment. According to insiders, combined with the rise of Gao Liang from the beginning of this year, the prices of the two major winemaking materials, the sorghum and wheat, will rise together, which is likely to be the direct thrust of a new round of price increase of liquor.

Pure grain liquor raw material costs 10 yuan?

FAO estimates that the world's total output of slaughter products in 2010 will reach 2.238 billion tons, which is expected to decrease by 41 million tons from June, most of which is due to the decline in wheat production. This summer, with extreme weather, Russia experienced a severe drought once in 130 years, and 20% of its land is facing an unrequited harvest. As a major wheat exporter to the world, Russia's wheat output will directly affect the world wheat supply. Therefore, at the end of June, the international wheat market emerged as a new force. As of the end of July, the price of CBOT wheat rose by 44%. In August, the wheat market continued to soar.

Regarding the impact of international food price fluctuations on the domestic market, as early as April of this year, the National Development and Reform Commission had publicly stated that “in recent years, the price of food on the international market has fluctuated significantly, and during the same period, China’s domestic food prices have remained basically stable and have steadily increased slightly. ". Since then, the data released by the National Development and Reform Commission on August 2 showed that in July, the average purchase price of the three main wheat varieties of red wheat, white wheat and mixed wheat was 98.66 yuan per 50 kg. In the first half of the year, food prices have risen. The news that the first summer crops fell in the past seven years came to the news. Although the drop was only 0.3%, it also increased the bullish expectations.

“Sorghum and wheat are the main raw materials for the production of white wine, which is the most direct production cost. The price increase for Maotai on the New Year’s Day this year is also mainly due to the increase in the price of raw materials.” Gao Qiang, a senior liquor producer in southern China, told reporters.

Liquor's ability to bear the cost of food materials is obviously different. An in-line person Zhang Li (a pseudonym) who has worked hard in the field of alcohol production for many years tells a reporter that a regular winery can only distill out a kilogram of white wine with five pounds of sorghum. At present, the purchase price of Gaochun is between 2 and 2.5 yuan/kg. The raw material cost of five pounds of pure sorghum white liquor is about 10 yuan. “The cost of 10 yuan will increase by 10%-20%, which is 2-3 yuan. This is undoubtedly the smallest impact on the terminal sales price of several hundred yuan, or nearly a thousand yuan in high-end liquor,” Zhang said.

The reporter reviewed the performance reports of Wuliangye and Maotai and found that the gross margin of the two companies was as high as 80%. "For the rising cost of grain for high-end liquor, they only need to stop CCTV advertising for less than a month, and they have filled everything." Said.

Yanghe took the lead in raising prices by 5%

The increase in grain costs has helped boost liquor prices, which is undoubtedly an indispensable line for high-end liquor prices. Last Friday, Yanghe (002304, shares) officially announced the company's "blue classic sky blue" series of factory prices, the average increase is about 5%. The company stated that the reason for price increase was due to factors such as the increase in prices of raw and auxiliary materials, the market supply and demand situation, and the need for corporate development strategies. Xiangcai Securities analyst pointed out that the increase in raw material prices is not the main reason for the price increase, because Yanghe's consolidated gross profit is as high as 60%, and it can be expected that the high-quality blue classic sky blue will have a higher gross margin. The higher gross profit margin is sufficient to support the increase in prices of raw materials and packaging materials.

However, liquor insiders said that the increase in costs is indeed the most stable and reasonable price increase channel for liquor. Shen Yinuoguo pointed out in a recent research report that with the approach of the peak season, the price increase is expected to be even more intense, and it is highly probable that the premium and retail price of high-end liquor will continue to rise and the ex-factory price is likely to increase.

The agency expects Maotai to increase its ex-factory price by 60 to 80 yuan, and the 52-degree crystal bottle Wuliangye will also increase its price by 40 to 60 yuan, after the 13 percent increase in the ex-factory price on New Year's Day this year, the national pit of Shuijingfang (600779). 1573 will also increase the price of 60 to 100 yuan after a month and a half.

However, for the middle and low-end liquor, this year's higher food prices have already approached the next price increase. “The liquor produced by Shiwan Distillery is dominated by rice, while barley and sorghum are ingredients. This year, rice prices have increased by 10%. Together with higher prices for sorghum and wheat, the current total raw material cost has increased by about 8%. Currently, sales channels are distributed. The dealer has already raised the terminal price, and soon we can't stand still and we have to raise the ex-factory price. The price increase is expected to be between 8% and 10%,” said Shi Shiyi, Shi Qiang, director of marketing at Shiwan Winery.

For wheat price increases, beer companies appear to be indifferent. “At present, barley is the main raw material in South China, and wheat has high protein content, which tends to make the wine turbid. It is only used as a proportion of 30%-40%. Therefore, wheat price increases have no significant impact on beer.” Guangdong Beer Association The person in charge told the reporter. The source also stated that due to overcapacity and oversupply of domestic beer, the price increase action often means a critical moment for the entire industry.