Since the beginning of 2010, the price of CBOT wheat futures has risen by about 40%, and Zhengzhou's strong wheat futures prices have also risen by nearly 20%. Recently, under the influence of the national macro-control policies, the spot market prices of conventional wheat have fallen by RMB 40-60/ton, and high-quality wheat prices have also declined slightly. However, the difference between high-quality wheat and common wheat is still as high as 250 yuan/ton, which is generally in history. The highest level, far higher than the average of RMB 120/ton since 2007. From the current climate characteristics and analysis of supply and demand, it is expected that the characteristics of wheat differentiation will continue.

First, the supply of high-quality wheat is tight In the spring of 2010, China suffered from low temperature and cold, and wheat growth was generally delayed. According to statistics from the National Bureau of Statistics, the output of winter wheat in China this year reached 108.97 million tons, an increase of nearly 1 million tons over the previous year. Although the total output of winter wheat has increased, according to traders and processing companies, the quality of high-quality wheat is greatly affected by the weather, which has decreased compared with last year. Since the wheat market, the spread between high-quality wheat and conventional wheat has been expanding from RMB 40/t at the end of June. Since September, the price difference has remained at a high of around RMB 250/t.

Globally, the supply of high-protein wheat remains tense. Affected by the high temperature of drought, the wheat production in the Black Sea region decreased significantly in 2010, and the wheat output in Canada, the United States, and other countries also declined, among which the proportion of high-quality wheat declined more significantly. Data from the Canadian Wheat Bureau shows that about 25% of wheat in 2010 was reduced to feed grade, which is much higher than the 5-10% level in normal years. The demand for high-protein, high-quality wheat in the international market continued to thrive, with the United States alone in the export market. The export volume increased by more than 85% year-on-year, and the demand for quality wheat was evident.

Second, the inclement weather caused market concerns According to meteorological forecast, the southern Hemisphere La Niña phenomenon showed signs of gradual strengthening, which will directly lead to more rainfall in the southern hemisphere, less precipitation in the northern hemisphere. At present, Australia's wheat crop is in the harvest season. Some analysts believe that of the 26.8 million tons of wheat produced in Australia, an estimated 60% is downgraded to the feed grade, which is much higher than the normal level of 5-10%. Precipitation in the main winter wheat producing areas in the United States is still scarce. As of December 5, the excellent rate of US winter wheat crops was 47%, far below the level of 63% in the same period of last year, and far below the average of 55% over the same period in five years. Roots are stunted and the wintering ability is reduced. Under normal circumstances, the La Niña phenomenon will be eliminated in March or so. Prior to this, precipitation in the Northern Hemisphere would be difficult to increase significantly, and the winter freezing rate of winter wheat may increase.

Similar to the situation in the United States, precipitation in the winter wheat producing areas in China is also scarce. According to statistics, the precipitation in the main wheat producing areas in October was 39% of the normal value. In November, the precipitation was 18% of the normal value. As of December 7, the rainfall in December was 1% of the normal value. There were no significant precipitation in Henan, Shandong, Hebei, Anhui and Jiangsu. In addition, the average temperature in wheat-producing areas is generally higher than normal. As of December 7, the average temperature in the winter wheat producing areas is 3.5°C higher than normal, and soil moisture loss has increased. Due to the high temperature, winter wheat has been delayed in the hibernation period. Drought has an increased influence on the early development of wheat before winter and causes widespread deviation of seedlings. According to statistics, the crops affected by drought in Huanghuai and Jianghuai winter wheat regions are affected by an area of ​​57.99 million mu and heavy droughts total 627 million mu. Currently, the main drought-afflicted regions are concentrated in southern Hebei, southern Shandong, northern Henan, northern Jiangsu, and northern Anhui. At present, the area affected by drought in winter wheat in Henan exceeds 11 million mu, including more than 100 million mu of drought. The proportion of the province's suitable area for lyricism is 69.2% (approximately 54.85 million mu), the proportion of light droughts is 26.5% (approximately 21 million mu), and the ratio of moderate droughts to severe droughts is 4.3% (approximately 345 million mu), among which, northern Henan, The drought in western Henan has been alleviated, while the drought in southern Henan has developed. The area of ​​crop drought in Shandong is more than 2170 million mu, which accounts for 40.56% of the province's wheat planting area of ​​53.5 million mu, of which 2.6 million mu is heavily drought. The maximum drought area of ​​wheat in Anhui Province has exceeded 10 million mu. There are still more than 6 million mu of dry wheat fields urgently needed to be watered, among which 1.6 million mu are not emerged from seedling fields, and there are still 10.3 million mu of weak seedlings; 28.81 million mu, of which 47.6 million mu were short of seedlings, accounting for 16.5%, up 2.1 percentage points over the previous year. Increased by 7.8 percentage points.

The major producing areas have experienced drought, and the winter wheat plants are poorly developed. The demand for weather will increase correspondingly when returning to green, and under strong Lanina climate, the probability of better than normal weather conditions in the next spring will decrease, and the ratio of high quality wheat grades can be achieved. Not optimistic. According to the analysis of the historical cycle, during the year of La Niña, the prices of agricultural products in the international market rose by more than 40%. Therefore, if the current climate conditions continue, the room for higher quality wheat prices still exists.

III. Limited impact of weaker prices in Pumai From 2006 to 2010, the state accumulatively acquired wheat with a minimum purchase price of 174.4 million tons in 6 major producing areas. Since November 2006, when it started selling the wheat with the lowest purchase price, it has accumulated sales of 142 million yuan. Tons, there are currently about 32.5 million tons left, according to the average weekly trading volume, a conservative estimate, at least 40 weeks of sales. Recently, in order to prevent excessive price increases, the country has adopted targeted sales methods to increase the supply of wheat following the rice and corn crops. The prices of conventional wheat have fallen at a high level. However, taking into account the current tight supply of high-protein and high-quality wheat in China, the international market is more tightly supplied and it is more difficult to import a large number of products. The price of conventional wheat has weakened, and the impact on quality wheat prices may only be a short-term phenomenon. After entering mid-January, high-quality wheat is expected to step out of the independent market driven by seasonal demand.

Based on the above analysis, whether from the perspective of the international market or the domestic market, whether it is from the current situation of market supply or from the perspective of production prospects, the probability that high-quality wheat and traditional wheat maintain hierarchical differentiation is relatively large. The fact that the futures market Amai Mayer contract is higher than that of the recent month contract shows that investors are still optimistic about the future high-quality wheat prices. “Selling and buying far” may be the main operating strategy for current market investment.