The "red envelope" market in the soybean oil market gradually evaporated as the Spring Festival approached. The U.S. Department of Agriculture’s report eventually set the "rabbit" as a weak structure. The strong US dollar index also suggested that the soybean oil price was still high. Under the end of the soybean shortage, demand for soyoil, which is expected to slow down, will be difficult to regain its price.

In the era of shortage of soybeans, the supply and demand pattern has been tightening in the post-secession era. Soybean oil stocks at the end of soybean oil stocks at the end of the year will be the norm. The U.S. Department of Agriculture has raised the 2011/12 U.S. soybean ending stocks for 3 consecutive months, and the January supply and demand report has further aggravated the market. The data show that US soybean yields and total production recorded a slight increase, export estimates fell 2%, domestic consumption weakened, and ultimately led to 2011/12 US soybean ending stocks rose to 7.49 million tons, 18% higher than market forecasts Continue to move in the direction of unfavorable prices.

Since 2001/02, the US soybean stocks consumption ratio has been characterized by cyclical characteristics, rising for three years and falling for three years. It seems that the curse of the cycle is affecting the market. It is expected that 2011/12 to 2013/14 will usher in a three-year adjustment in the ratio of inventory to consumption. This time, it will also be accompanied by a logic of slowing export demand. After all, the increase in South American soybean trade in the global market has become an indisputable fact. .

Domestically, the increase in the growth of soybean inventories at the port has become an irresistible trend. The huge inventory of nearly 7 million tons has made the fat companies "go out of the pot" and the expansion of crushing capacity, both in the short-term and long-term cycles. Looking at the domestic soybean oil supply basically no worries.

The policy city or the re-enactment of the "Twelfth Five-Year Development Plan for the Food Industry" may indicate that soybean oil will enter the decline channel in the domestic vegetable oil market share. "Planning" proposes that by 2015, edible vegetable oil production will reach 24.4 million tons, of which domestic oil production will increase to 12.6 million tons; peanut oil, rapeseed oil, cottonseed oil, sunflower oil, rice bran oil, and camellia oil The proportion of production has increased significantly. The consumption structure of domestic vegetable oil may change, the growth rate of soybean oil will enter the bottleneck period, and the soybean oil consumption space in the future will be eroded by varieties such as peanut oil and rapeseed oil, or will follow the slowdown of the entire vegetable oil and slow down.

Under the plan, the policy layout began to show up. China Grain's own brand "Jinding" edible oil was put into the market after New Year's Day, becoming an important attempt of the national team to try to break the monopoly of oil industry by foreign capital, and its significance is greater than the actual significance itself. According to national plans, in 2012, the crushing capacity of grain and oil reserves will exceed 6 million tons and the oil refining capacity will exceed 2 million tons. Together with COFCO's 10.38 million tons of crushing capacity and 4.17 million tons of refining capacity, the “China” prefix oil company The ability to resist foreign investment will be significantly enhanced. It is expected that the soybean oil market will enter the policy market in 2012, and prices will be mainly stable, and it is difficult to have a thrilling uptrend.

In the short term, relevant statistics show that the domestic soyoil business inventories have quietly increased, and has exceeded 1.3 million tons. In addition, the Ministry of Commerce estimates that the amount of soybean oil arriving in Hong Kong in January will be as high as 230,000 tons. For the off-season consumption season after the Spring Festival, soybean oil The period price "leader" is worrying.